YODA Week 3 & the Preseason YODA MVP; 2022 Prediction

 Everything was bad Thursday night vs Houston (by design possibly), and this did not exclude the special teams. Although Mitch Wishnowsky had a busy and productive night to seal his preseason YODA MVP (2022), offensive field position and special teams penalties negated any momentum. 

Chicago the weekend after next, will the special teams be better this year or not?

1q 

12:45 Punt, 44 yards, 15 yd line SFP (+5)

7:33 XP Block (Fail, -1 point)

4:20 Punt (53 yards) 24 yd line SFP (-4)

2:43 Punt Return, holding, 12 yd line SFP (-8)

2q

9:29 Punt Return, illegal block, 8 yd line SFP (-12)

3:35 Punt (62 yards), 6 yard return, 28 yd line SFP (-8)

1:05 Punt Return, 0 yards, 37 yd line SFP (+17)

3q

11:27 XP Block (Fail, -1 point)

7:54 Punt (44 yards), touchback 20 yd line SFP (0)

2:02 FG Block (Fail, -3 Points)

4th

12:59 FG Block (Success, miss, +3 points)

12:29 Punt (46 yards), 10 yd return, 36 yd line SFP (-16)

10:21 Punt Return (0 yards, 15 yard penalty accepted), 29 yd line SFP (+9)

4:35 Punt Return (0 yards), 12 yd line SFP (-8)

Totals-

Snaps - 14

YODA: (-25)

Points Scored: 0

Points Allowed: 5

Points Denied: 3 (FG Miss)

Point differential (Scored + Denied - Allowed = -2) 

Punt Yards: 246 (49.2 Average, 62 yard long)

FG: None

XP: None

Preseason YODA Totals:

Net points: +12

YODA: +109 (even with terrible Game 3)

Takeaways: Field position has been ok, and this number could actually be lower if not for Wishnowsky's effort in game 3. Has the special teams productivity/process been improved with the new special teams coach or is it something else? 

2022 Prediction

I do not know what to make of this team. The roster is amazing, outside of some major question marks on the offensive line and a second year FCS quarterback at starter, which, no matter how you slice it, is a question mark. Will they make good on the Super Bowl dreams? Will it be another even number season from hell?

I see 4-4 at the bye, then 6-3, 7-2 down the stretch. 10-7, 11-6 could very well win this division, and success in the division, particularly against College Kliff and Kyler, along with Uncle Pete and whatever QB he shows up with. I don't think they fall back enough to be out of the playoffs, but can they go further than last year and/or win the Super Bowl? I want to hope so, but I don't like the vibe. With that said:

11-6

Win the division, lose in divisional round (while hoping they prove me wrong).  (Official 2022 Prediction, 8/29/2022)

YODA Preseason Week 2; Turf Trepidation

 Improvement in the field position game, but mainly because of Minnesota’s poor special teams play. Still, +98 yards and 8 net points is still positive for a unit building off the opus of last January’s Lambeau Anomaly. Off to the numbers.

SF Special Teams 2022 Game 2 (PS) vs Minnesota

1q: KO defense, Touchback (0)

1q: Punt return, 43 yard line SFP (+23)

1q: Punt, 56 yards, 13 yard line SFP  (+7)

1q: Punt return, 1 yard, 41 yard line SFP (+21)

2q: Punt return, no return, 20 yard line SFP (0)

2q: Field Goal, 49 yards, success (3 points)

2q: Kickoff, Touchback (0)

2q: Punt Return, no return, 11yd line SFP (-9)

2q: Punt, 14 yard return allowed, 40 yd line SFP (-20)

2q: XP block, fail (-1 point)

2q: KO Return, no return, 25 yard line SFP (0)

2q: FG, 46 yards, success (+3 points)

3q: PR, 9 yards, 21 yard line SFP (+1)

4q: KO, 15 yards, 15 yard line SFP (+10)

4q: PR, no return, 28 yard line SFP (+8)

4q: Punt, 1 yard return, 1 yard line SFP (+19)

4q: PR, 13 yard line, Min 37 yard line SFP (+43)

4q: FG, 28 yards, success (+3 points)

4q: KO, Touchback, offsides, 30 yard line SFP (-5)

Total ST Snaps: 23

Total points scored\negated swing: +9

Total Points Allowed: 1

Net Special Team Points: +8 

Total Yards Over Default: +98

Preseason total: 

Net points- +14

Total Yards Over Default- +134

The Saberhagen Philosophy

An old philosophy where even numbered years were cursed. 

Former Major Leaguer Bret Saberhagen went 20-6 in 1985, 18-10 in 87, 23-6 in 89, (he finally got out of this rut in 1994, but as a consequence the entire season was cancelled and the Montreal Expos were sacrificed to the Gods). Combined record for 84, 86, 88, 90, 1992: 39-53. 

Hence, the Saberhagen philosophy. 

Since Kyle joined the 9ers in 2017-

2017: 6-10 (started 0-9)

2018: 4-12

2019: 13-3, NFC Title

2020: 6-10

2021: 10-7, NFC Championship appearance

Even numbered years: 10-22

Odd numbered years: 29-20 (not including playoffs, 33-22 including playoffs)

Ending the preseason in Houston ( Google “NFL Injuries at Houston”) and starting in Chicago (Google “Soldier Field sod”) does not leave me with any sort of warm or fuzzy feeling.

Preseason Game 1: What the hell is YODA?

Preseason week one was exactly what you’d expect: some big plays (RayRay McCloud, Trey Lance to Danny Gray 76 yards later) some not so great plays (Tarvarius Moore’s coverage on Romeo Doubs, Trey Lance overshooting Gray on the sidelines, JaMychal Hasty’s unfortunate sideline kickoff return shenanigan). We here at Niners Northeast will leave the big time film study to the real content creators, but here is last night’s special teams stats, using the debut of something that shall eventually be known as “YODA”.

“What the hell is YODA?”

YODA = Yards Over Default Average (Punt Line of Default is 20 yard line, kickoffs 25)

Default Average is what your starting field position is if you do absolutely nothing. Literally if every punt and or kick was a touchback, that’s where you would start each drive. While we do track plays and yardage, the key is the amount of + or - above/below the Default. (Also points, as tracked below)

PSNS = Points Scored/Negated Swing (Includes Blocks/returns/misses for_against. Example: FG block or miss vs you is +3, block return TD +6, for a total of 9. If that happens against your team, -9)

TPA = Total Points Allowed (Self-explanatory) 

FP = Field Position (Honestly, who throws a shoe? That really hurt!)

With all that being explained…

Special Teams Snaps Tracking: Game 1

1q KO Defense: Touchback (+0)

1q Punt Return:  starting FP 41 yard line (+21)

1q FG Kick: 50 yards success (+3)

1q XP Block Team: fail (-1)

1q KO Return: starting FP 23 yard line (-2) 

1q XP Kick: Success (+1)

1q KO Defense: starting FP SF 47 yard line (-28)

2q XP Kick: Success (+1)

2q Punt Def: 35 yard punt, starting FP 20 (0)

2q KO Return: starting FP 6 yard line (Hasty’s sideline adventure) (-19)

3q KO Return: 28 yards, starting FP 37 (+12)

3q Punt Def: 48 yard punt, starting FP 9 (+11)

3q FG defense: kick missed (+3) starting FP 22 (+2)

3q Punt Defense: 30 yard punt , starting FP 17 (+3)

3q Punt return: 7 yard return, starting FP 39 (+19)

3q Punt defense: 54 yard punt, 7 yard return allowed, starting FP 33 (-13)

4q XP Block Team: fail (-1)

4q KO Return: 15 yard return, starting FP 31 (+6) 

4q KO Defense: 19 yard return allowed, starting FP 20 (-5)

Total Spec Teams Snaps: 19

Total points scored\negated swing: 8

Total Points Allowed: 2

Net Special Team Points: +6

Total Yards Over Default Average: +7

Final Result: Special Teams had a lightly positive impact on this game

Accounted for 6 points and plus 7 yards. Incremental start for the new-look special teams.

Back w/ more after Game 2 vs the Vikings. (#SKOL, which should stand for Skoal but I am sure they can’t sponsor it)